{"id":23,"date":"2026-06-30T10:32:03","date_gmt":"2026-06-30T10:32:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/hocabul.net\/?p=23"},"modified":"2026-06-30T10:32:05","modified_gmt":"2026-06-30T10:32:05","slug":"poisson-dagilimi-ile-mac-skoru-nasil-tahmin-edilir","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/hocabul.net\/?p=23","title":{"rendered":"Poisson Da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m\u0131 ile Ma\u00e7 Skoru Nas\u0131l Tahmin Edilir?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Bir \u00f6nceki yaz\u0131m\u0131zda xG (beklenen gol) kavram\u0131n\u0131<\/a> \u00f6\u011frenmi\u015ftik: bir tak\u0131m\u0131n bir ma\u00e7ta ortalama ka\u00e7 gol atmas\u0131n\u0131n beklendi\u011fi. Peki bu \u201cbeklenen gol\u201d say\u0131s\u0131n\u0131, \u201c2-1 bitme ihtimali y\u00fczde ka\u00e7\u201d gibi somut bir skor olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131na nas\u0131l \u00e7eviririz? \u0130\u015fte burada Poisson da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m\u0131 devreye girer. Bu yaz\u0131da, ciddi spor analiti\u011finin bel kemiklerinden biri olan bu y\u00f6ntemi ad\u0131m ad\u0131m ele al\u0131yoruz.<\/p>

Poisson da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m\u0131 nedir?<\/h2>

Poisson da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m\u0131, belirli bir s\u00fcrede ortalama ka\u00e7 kez ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti\u011fini bildi\u011fimiz \u201cnadir ve ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z\u201d olaylar\u0131n, tam olarak 0, 1, 2, 3… kez olma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 hesaplayan bir istatistik modelidir. Bir ma\u00e7taki goller tam da b\u00f6yle davran\u0131r: nispeten nadirdir ve (b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde) birbirinden ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z olu\u015furlar. Bu y\u00fczden gol modellemesinin klasik arac\u0131 Poisson\u2019d\u0131r.<\/p>

Tek girdi: beklenen gol ortalamas\u0131<\/h2>

Poisson\u2019\u0131n ihtiyac\u0131 olan tek say\u0131, o tak\u0131m\u0131n ma\u00e7 ba\u015f\u0131na beklenen gol ortalamas\u0131d\u0131r (istatistikte buna lambda denir). Bunu, tak\u0131m\u0131n xG verisinden ya da ge\u00e7mi\u015f gol ortalamas\u0131ndan elde edebilirsiniz. Diyelim ki ev sahibi tak\u0131m\u0131n beklenen gol\u00fc 1,6; deplasman tak\u0131m\u0131n\u0131nki 1,1 olsun. Poisson form\u00fcl\u00fc, bu ortalamalardan her tak\u0131m\u0131n 0 gol, 1 gol, 2 gol, 3 gol atma olas\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 ayr\u0131 ayr\u0131 hesaplar.<\/p>

\u0130ki tak\u0131m\u0131 birle\u015ftirip skor olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 bulmak<\/h2>

S\u0131ra skora geldi\u011finde mant\u0131k basittir: belirli bir skorun olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131, iki tak\u0131m\u0131n ilgili gol say\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n olas\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131n \u00e7arp\u0131m\u0131d\u0131r. \u00d6rne\u011fin \u201c2-1\u201d olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 = (ev sahibinin 2 gol atma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131) \u00d7 (deplasman\u0131n 1 gol atma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131). T\u00fcm olas\u0131 skorlar i\u00e7in bu \u00e7arp\u0131m\u0131 yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131zda, elinizde t\u00fcm ma\u00e7 i\u00e7in bir olas\u0131l\u0131k tablosu olu\u015fur. Bu tablodan galibiyet\/beraberlik olas\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 ya da \u201cen olas\u0131 skor\u201d gibi \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131mlar\u0131 elde edebilirsiniz. Form\u00fcl\u00fcn matematiksel detay\u0131 i\u00e7in Poisson da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n tan\u0131m\u0131<\/a> iyi bir ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7t\u0131r.<\/p>

Modelin s\u0131n\u0131rlar\u0131n\u0131 bilmek<\/h2>

Poisson g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ama m\u00fckemmel de\u011fildir. Ger\u00e7ek hayatta goller tam ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z de\u011fildir (bir gol oyunun temposunu de\u011fi\u015ftirir), k\u0131rm\u0131z\u0131 kart gibi olaylar modeli bozar ve tak\u0131mlar\u0131n form\/motivasyon gibi nitel fakt\u00f6rleri say\u0131ya tam yans\u0131maz. Bu y\u00fczden ileri modeller Poisson\u2019\u0131 d\u00fczeltmelerle (\u00f6rne\u011fin Dixon-Coles) geli\u015ftirir. \u0130\u015fin hocas\u0131 olmak, modeli kullanmak kadar nerede yan\u0131laca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 da bilmektir: Poisson bir tahmindir, kesin bir kehanet de\u011fil.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Bir \u00f6nceki yaz\u0131m\u0131zda xG (beklenen gol) kavram\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6\u011frenmi\u015ftik: bir tak\u0131m\u0131n bir ma\u00e7ta ortalama ka\u00e7 gol atmas\u0131n\u0131n beklendi\u011fi. Peki bu \u201cbeklenen gol\u201d say\u0131s\u0131n\u0131, \u201c2-1 bitme ihtimali y\u00fczde ka\u00e7\u201d gibi somut bir skor olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131na nas\u0131l \u00e7eviririz? \u0130\u015fte burada Poisson da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m\u0131 devreye girer. Bu yaz\u0131da, ciddi spor analiti\u011finin bel kemiklerinden biri olan bu y\u00f6ntemi ad\u0131m ad\u0131m ele al\u0131yoruz. … Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-23","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-veriyle-spor-analizi"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/hocabul.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/23","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/hocabul.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/hocabul.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hocabul.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hocabul.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=23"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/hocabul.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/23\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":24,"href":"https:\/\/hocabul.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/23\/revisions\/24"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/hocabul.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=23"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hocabul.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=23"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hocabul.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=23"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}