Bir ma\u00e7a bak\u0131p \u201cbu tak\u0131m kazan\u0131r\u201d demek kolayd\u0131r; zor olan, bu sezgiyi bir say\u0131ya \u00e7evirmektir. Modern futbol analizinin t\u00fcm derdi de budur: \u201cnas\u0131l hissediyorum\u201d yerine \u201cveriler ne diyor\u201d sorusunu sormak. Bu yaz\u0131da, futbol istatistiklerinin temelindeki olas\u0131l\u0131k mant\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve son y\u0131llar\u0131n en pop\u00fcler metri\u011fi olan xG (beklenen gol) kavram\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131f\u0131rdan, hocas\u0131ndan \u00f6\u011frenir gibi ele al\u0131yoruz.<\/p>
Olas\u0131l\u0131k, bir olay\u0131n ger\u00e7ekle\u015fme \u015fans\u0131n\u0131 0 ile 1 aras\u0131nda bir say\u0131yla ifade etmektir. Bir penalt\u0131n\u0131n gole d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k 0,76 ise, bu \u201cher 100 penalt\u0131dan ortalama 76\u2019s\u0131 gol olur\u201d demektir. Futbol istatisti\u011finin tamam\u0131 bu basit fikir \u00fczerine kuruludur: her \u015fut, her pas, her pozisyon bir olas\u0131l\u0131k ta\u015f\u0131r. Konunun matematiksel temelini derinle\u015ftirmek isteyenler i\u00e7in olas\u0131l\u0131k teorisinin temelleri<\/a> iyi bir ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7 noktas\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p> xG, \u201cexpected goals\u201d yani \u201cbeklenen gol\u201d demektir. Bir \u015futun gole d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 0 ile 1 aras\u0131nda bir de\u011fere \u00e7evirir. \u00d6rne\u011fin kaleye 6 metreden, bo\u015f a\u00e7\u0131ya yap\u0131lan bir \u015futun xG de\u011feri 0,9 olabilirken; 30 metreden, \u00fc\u00e7 savunmac\u0131n\u0131n aras\u0131ndan denenen bir \u015futun xG de\u011feri 0,03 olabilir. Bir oyuncunun ya da tak\u0131m\u0131n ma\u00e7 boyunca biriktirdi\u011fi t\u00fcm \u015futlar\u0131n xG de\u011ferlerini toplad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131zda, \u201cbu pozisyonlardan ortalama ka\u00e7 gol beklenirdi\u201d sorusunun cevab\u0131n\u0131 bulursunuz.<\/p> Profesyonel xG modelleri bir \u015futun de\u011ferini hesaplarken \u015fu fakt\u00f6rlere bakar: kaleye uzakl\u0131k, \u015fut a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131, \u015futun aya\u011fla m\u0131 kafayla m\u0131 yap\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131, pozisyonun a\u00e7\u0131k oyundan m\u0131 yoksa duran toptan m\u0131 geldi\u011fi ve savunman\u0131n bask\u0131s\u0131. Model, ge\u00e7mi\u015fteki on binlerce benzer \u015futa bakarak \u201cbu \u015fartlardaki \u015futlar\u0131n y\u00fczde ka\u00e7\u0131 gol olmu\u015f\u201d sorusunu yan\u0131tlar ve \u00e7\u0131kan oran\u0131 o \u015futun xG de\u011feri yapar.<\/p> K\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck bir \u00f6rnek: Bir tak\u0131m bir ma\u00e7ta xG de\u011ferleri 0,4 + 0,1 + 0,05 + 0,7 + 0,2 olan be\u015f \u015fut att\u0131ysa, toplam xG = 1,45\u2019tir. Yani \u201cbu pozisyonlardan ortalama 1,45 gol beklenirdi.\u201d Tak\u0131m 3 gol att\u0131ysa beklenenden iyi, 0 gol att\u0131ysa beklenenden k\u00f6t\u00fc bitirmi\u015f demektir.<\/p> Gol gibi \u201cnadir ve ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z\u201d olaylar\u0131 modellemek i\u00e7in istatistikte Poisson da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m\u0131 kullan\u0131l\u0131r. Bir tak\u0131m\u0131n ma\u00e7 ba\u015f\u0131na beklenen gol ortalamas\u0131n\u0131 (\u00f6rne\u011fin 1,45) Poisson form\u00fcl\u00fcne verdi\u011finizde, o tak\u0131m\u0131n 0 gol, 1 gol, 2 gol atma olas\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 ayr\u0131 ayr\u0131 hesaplayabilirsiniz. \u0130ki tak\u0131m\u0131n da\u011f\u0131l\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 birle\u015ftirince \u201c2-1 bitme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00fczde ka\u00e7\u201d gibi skor tahminlerine ula\u015f\u0131l\u0131r. Bu y\u00f6ntem, ciddi spor analiti\u011finin bel kemiklerinden biridir.<\/p> xG ve Poisson g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ara\u00e7lard\u0131r ama birer tahmindir, kesinlik de\u011fil. \u00d6zellikle k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck \u00f6rneklemlerde (tek bir ma\u00e7ta) yan\u0131lt\u0131c\u0131 olabilirler; de\u011ferleri as\u0131l anlaml\u0131 k\u0131lan \u015fey, uzun bir sezon boyunca biriken trendlerdir. \u0130yi bir analist say\u0131lara tap\u0131nmaz; onlar\u0131 ba\u011flam\u0131yla birlikte okur. \u201cBu tak\u0131m\u0131n xG\u2019si y\u00fcksek ama golc\u00fcs\u00fc sakat\u201d gibi niteliksel bilgiyi g\u00f6rmezden gelen bir model, eksik bir modeldir. \u201c\u0130\u015fin hocas\u0131\u201d olmak, hem say\u0131y\u0131 hem de say\u0131n\u0131n s\u0131n\u0131rlar\u0131n\u0131 bilmektir.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Bir ma\u00e7a bak\u0131p \u201cbu tak\u0131m kazan\u0131r\u201d demek kolayd\u0131r; zor olan, bu sezgiyi bir say\u0131ya \u00e7evirmektir. Modern futbol analizinin t\u00fcm derdi de budur: \u201cnas\u0131l hissediyorum\u201d yerine \u201cveriler ne diyor\u201d sorusunu sormak. Bu yaz\u0131da, futbol istatistiklerinin temelindeki olas\u0131l\u0131k mant\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve son y\u0131llar\u0131n en pop\u00fcler metri\u011fi olan xG (beklenen gol) kavram\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131f\u0131rdan, hocas\u0131ndan \u00f6\u011frenir gibi ele al\u0131yoruz. Olas\u0131l\u0131k … Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-6","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-veriyle-spor-analizi"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/hocabul.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/hocabul.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/hocabul.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hocabul.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hocabul.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=6"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/hocabul.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":8,"href":"https:\/\/hocabul.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6\/revisions\/8"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/hocabul.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=6"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hocabul.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=6"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hocabul.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=6"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}xG (Beklenen Gol) nedir?<\/h2>
xG nas\u0131l hesaplan\u0131r? Mant\u0131\u011f\u0131 basittir<\/h2>
Poisson da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m\u0131 ve skor tahmini<\/h2>
\u00d6nemli uyar\u0131: Model, ger\u00e7e\u011fin kendisi de\u011fildir<\/h2>